Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Southern Italy (Calabria Region)

نویسندگان

چکیده

We apply extreme value theory (EVT) to study the daily precipitation and temperature extremes in Calabria region (southern Italy) mainly considering a long-term observational dataset (1990–2020) also investigating possible use of ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) fields. The efficiency EVT applied on available is first assessed—both through punctual statistical analysis return-level maps. Two different methods are adopted, namely peak-over-threshold (POT) approach for block-maxima (BM) temperature. proposed methodologies appear be suitable describing both quantitative terms, specific points, terms most affected areas by values, Conversely, conducted using reanalysis fields same time period highlights limitations these correct reconstruction while showing certain consistency regarding events. By applying methodology observed but focusing return periods 50 100 years, an increasing trend rainfall over whole emerges, with more events; particular, values up 500 mm/day predicted southeastern part 50-year-return period, maximum temperatures 40 °C expected next western southern parts region. These results offer useful perspective evaluating exacerbation future weather events possibly linked climate change effects.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2073-4433']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030553